Oct 21 / 4:08pm

Why Zynga should fear Facebook

There is so much buzz about Zynga's incredible revenue numbers. But if I am Zynga, I would be seriously concerned about the company's longterm sustainability given how much it relies on Facebook.

You cannot tell me that a company can be making hundreds of millions on my platform...and that I wouldn't envy them in some way. Yes, at first it is very flattering if I am facebook. In the longrun, when you have revenue and profits to worry about, you will not think that much about screwing some of your top earners like Zynga in order to get a slice of their $. If I am Zynga, I probably don't mind giving Facebook a slice of my earnings. In fact, I probably want to give Facebook a slice if that means my business gets some certainty and protection from the random nature of online platforms sans formal agreements.

A lot of people cite Microsoft Windows as an example that platform plays don't screw up the little guys. Very True. Except Zynga is no longer the little guy. And when Microsoft saw the potential of a word processor, they didn't sit back for another vendor to use their platform. Instead, they built Office.

What stops Facebook from setting up a hugeass lab to make games? And then deeply integrate the games into every Facebook account? I wonder if this would lead to any anticompetitive lawsuits like Windows shipping with IE? Regardless, it would definitely spice up a new genre of conspiracy theories if Facebook gets into gaming and random gaming apps on facebook have mysterious downtimes. 

Facebook will have an unfair advantage the day they get into gaming. That should worry every one of these super performing gaming networks, especially if Facebook fails to find another sustainable and promising revenue model. And remember, the bar for "sustainable" and "promising" is incredibly high for a company of Facebook's size.

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